Thursday, January 19, 2012

Prescience is critical to finding the Open Ice before your competition does.  It also help to possess thorough knowledge of any rules governing conduct on the field of play. 

As unpredictable as Washington Lawmakers are, it safe to assume that at least two of the 3 branches of government will react to crisis with legislative fixes capable of exacerbating the situation.

Against the backdrop of a chaotic primary season and a long holiday recess, Congress is back at work doing what it does best.  Are you ready?

SOPA Opera

With backing from major American media companies (Coalition Against Counterfeiting and Piracy), the House Judiciary Committee held a series of mark-up sessions this week on the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA). The Bill and its Senate counterpart – the Protect IP Act (PIPA) - propose to allow the Justice Department to seek a court order requiring U.S. search engines to scrub certain results from the sites, among other anti piracy measures.  The debate has been framed as a battle over First Amendment Rights between “old” media and crowd-sourced “new” media content providers (like Google, Wikipedia and AskMe.com).  The Obama Administration has signaled a willingness to veto, if necessary.  

House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) told reporters that the piracy legislation wasn't set to come up for a vote anytime soon because "it's pretty clear to many of us that there's a lack of consensus at this point." PIPA has been stalled in the Senate since May but is expected to be on the floor next Tuesday for a procedural vote.

Given the opposing players' stubborn unwillingness to embrace compromise, incumbent politicians are likely to benefit from the lobbyists largess in the way of campaign cash this election year.

Exit Options

Media and Entertainment investments carry inherent risk - not the least of which is getting "trapped" in an over leveraged deal facing both cyclical and secular challenges.  Ask Bain, TH Lee, Crestview Partners, et al.

Increasing opportunities for timely exits is one of the simplest means of mitigating risk, encouraging investment and achieving employment growth. 

Some market watchers predict an uptick in tech and Internet companies IPO’s this year, fueled by the Facebook-effect and potential regulatory changes. Most analysts expect VC-backed IPOs to outpace those from PE-backed firms, considering forecasts for continued volatility.

However, a bill (S1933) introduced late last year by US Sens. Charles Schumer (D, N.Y.) and Pat Toomey (R., Pa.) might jump start renewed interest in the IPO market. The Reopening American Capital Markets to Emerging Growth Companies Act of 2011 seeks to ease the onerous burdens currently imposed on small company IPO’s by Dodd-Frank and the Volcker Rule.

A Crowded Playing Field?

Worried about competition from stand-alone, user-customizable streaming audio services?  SiriusXM CEO Mel Karmazin declares " advantage:  satellite and broadcast radio".  It's all about "no barrier to entry". 

In his Citi Entertainment, Media and Telecommunications Conference key note address, SiriusXM CEO Mel Karmazin somewhat dismissively asserted that starting a streaming audio music service that can be personalized by each user would be a fairly simple proposition for his company (or any other).


Music royalty payments for stand-alone streaming audio services have represented a big headwind on profit margins - far more so than for AM, FM or satellite radio - even for Pandora, the beneficiary of a relatively favorable pay for play royalty deal.  It takes a million plays on Pandora for artists to receive $1,000 in fees.

Signs of increasing friction over royalty payments are beginning to appear anew as core artists like Jay-Z, Coldplay, the Black Keys, and a slew of indie artists and labels publicly resist digital distribution channels like Spotify, MOG and SlackerFast Company reports on questions of business model viability.

The South Park Effect?


Do people actually act on their privacy concerns?

Data from over 37,000 respondents was analyzed by Forrester Research. Forty-four percent of those surveyed said they had not completed an online transaction because of something they read in the company’s terms of use or privacy policy. That’s up from 38 percent in 2008.

Are Matt Stone and Trey Parker much more sacrilegiously influential than anyone ever imagined?




Skate On!



Thursday, January 5, 2012

Gratuitous 2012 Predictions


Happy New Year!

Now, I kind of hope that the Mayans were wrong about it being all over this coming December.  

And since I don't know anyone who has actually ever exchanged thoughts with a Mayan, I'm not convinced that its a great idea to make short term plans that accommodate the end of days scenario.


That said, entrepreneurs and their investors do in fact look to the tea leaves (as interpreted by folks far more intelligent than your humble correspondent) for some guidance in plotting strategies to profit handsomely by reecommending emerging business trends. 

So, in an effort to remain relevent with those that choose to follow my musings, here are a few of the more intriguing predictions for 2012 that I’ve come across:

Choose your "-ism" (Opt or Pess)


A group comprised equally of 500 VC’s and VC-Backed CEO’s shared their 2012 predictions on funding, exits, the economy and politics in a survey (Venture View 2012) mounted by the National Venture Capital Association and Dow Jones Venture Source.

Will 2012 be the Year of the Enterprise Software Startup?

The early commercialization of social applications and platforms, big data management and analytics, and business intelligence began a trend in 2011.

A marked decline in the number of employees being issued company-owned BlackBerries has been attributed to RIM’s widely disruptive services outages. Fortune 500 employers appear poised to embrace the “bring your own device to work” concept. But there is precious little enterprise software (i.e. order processing, accounting and customer relationship management applications) currently available for SmartPhone users.

While the CIO community’s faith in the cloud took a hit last year with days-long outages at Amazon and other cloud-based behemoths, Aaron Levie, CEO and co-founder of Box.net admits to still having his head in the cloud.  In his New Year’s Day TechCrunch post Levie envisions cloud-based solutions taking the decidedly boring enterprise software category mainstream.


Forget Tablets – 2012  The Year of the UltraBook?

Last May Intel launched the Ultrabook initiative (the Xeon E5 processor) supporting slimmer laptops that offer longer battery life and faster boot-ups-rivaling the MacBook Air and the iPad.

At least 30 new UltraBooks are set to debut at the 2012 CES (Consumer Electronics Show) in Las Vegas later this month.

Information Week has a preview.
UltraBook News has a few early reviews.

Caveat Emptor: The tech journals are already speculating that Intel will introduce a newer, faster Xeon processor (code name: Ivy Bridge) this spring.


Don’t Fence Me In!


Geofencing SmartPhone apps create a digital perimeter around a location -- which could be a building, school or an entire city -- that enables merchants or others to keep tabs on mobile phone users who cross an electronic boundary. Some apps focus on personal security – others allow marketers to push “location-sensitive” ads to SmartPhoneMercury News.



Shivering ICE's Timbers?


Was Radio Luxembourg the legendary 60's “pirate ship” for “rock-starved” Brits the inspiration for the son of a Cuban Immigrant?

Max Marty’s Blueseed (likely a pun) aims to address the visa dilemma for foreign entrepreneurs with Silicon Valley aspirations. SilconValley.com has details